Is your fantasy team in the toilet? Is your office football pool in shambles? Did your suicide poll go down with the Bucs’ ship? Are you stuck watching Cleveland or Baltimore (CBS loves to put these guys on in Pittsburgh) at 1 pm while you wait for the late Steelers start? If so, you are in luck, because this week I am presenting the one and only clinically tested, FDA-approved* set of predictions for the second half of the NFL season. These predictions are ‘Burgher tested, ‘Burgher approved, and guaranteed not to result in a torn meniscus.

I am one of those people who believe that the NFL season doesn’t start until the leaves start hitting the ground. Sure, those September and October contests count in the standings, but championships are won on Sundays when the wind chill is a relevant game-time stat. For all intents and purposes, the first eight games only serve to separate the haves from the have-nots.

At this point, nobody really cares about the have-nots – not the owner, the players, or the season ticket holders. So I am not going to spend a lot of time on them. Here is the quick summary: The teams with losing records now will probably still have losing records at the end of the season. Don’t expect any of these teams to ‘turn it around’ or suddenly ‘mature’ and play well from here on out (that means you, Buffalo!). Just try not to get sucked into any of those ‘Jags (–10.5) at Texans’ spreads.

Let’s consider the contenders, starting with the AFC.

The AFC race, even at this early stage, is pretty cut and dry. Barring a major collapse, the Colts will take the top overall seed into the playoffs. They will be followed by the AFC North champs (and you can guess who I think will take that division). The AFC West will get the number three seed, followed by the Pats at number four. The AFC North runner up will be the top Wild Card, leaving three teams from the West and South to duke it out for the last invitation to the playoffs.

AFC South

Champion: Jagua, I mean the Colts. The Colts should have no problem getting to 13 or 14 wins, even though their schedule features actual NFL opponents for the next eight weeks. Peyton and his merry men will have tough tests against the Bengals, Steelers, Chargers, Seahawks, and at Jacksonville, but they also get cream puffs Houston, Tennessee, and Arizona. Even a poor 2-3 showing against the stiffer competition should be enough to get the Colts to 13 wins and the regular season conference crown.

Wild Card hopeful: The Jaguars, currently 5-3, have seven very winnable games in the second half (Baltimore, at Tennessee, at Arizona, at Cleveland, San Francisco, at Houston, Tennessee). Don’t expect them to win all seven. The Jags are notorious for keeping every game close; that can be a formula for disaster against bad teams and it almost caught up to them last week against Houston. They also play three consecutive road games (at Tennessee, at Arizona, at Cleveland) after a home game this weekend. The competition is bad, but it’s tough enough to win on the road in the NFL, and even harder to do it week after week. When all is said and done, expect 10 or 11 wins from the SwampCats.

AFC North

Champions: Steelers. The Steelers are finished with the meaty part of their schedule, and have only two games – against the Bengals and at Indy – left against meaningful competition. The Steelers also have the bonus of playing three of their final four games against the woeful NFC North, which should give the Steelers a chance to make sure that everyone is healthy heading into the playoffs. Twelve or even thirteen wins seems likely, but don’t be surprised if the Steelers shut it down a little after waxing the Bengals in three weeks.

Wild Card: Bengals. The Bengals are a good team, but they aren’t ready to play with the big boys yet. Their loss in Pittsburgh will doom them to second place in the division, but their continued cupcake schedule will allow the Bengals to rack up 11 or 12 wins and a Wild Card berth with no problem. Expect them to lose to the Colts and Steelers, and don’t be surprised if they eventually drop a game to an inferior team. The Bengals have been great at beating up on he bottom feeders, but teams that make the jump from mediocre to playoff-bound usually manage to have one hiccup along the way and drop a game that they should win. Watch out for the two trap games that bookend the contest against the Steelers, home games against Baltimore and Cleveland.

AFC East

Champions: Patriots. The Pats have alternated wins and losses all season. Expect that trend to end soon; with games at Miami and against the Saints the next two weeks the Pats might actually post a winning streak. The Patriots have a weak second half schedule, but their inconsistency is as much to blame as the tough schedule for their 4-4 start. This team has looked like a 9-7 unit since September, and I don’t expect that to change soon.

And it works: Teams enjoying failure or ho-hum success (posting a record similar to their history, or making the same exit from the playoffs that they usually had) improved in almost every case, either 1) making the playoffs when they usually wouldn’t, 2) going deeper into the playoffs than they’d been accustomed to, or 3) won at least two more games than they had in the previous year.
AFC West

The AFC West is easily the muddiest division in the conference. The top three teams are all pretty good, and there have not been too many divisional games yet. That leaves a lot of time for these teams to beat up on each other.

Champions: Denver, I guess. I am not as bullish on the Broncos as the folks at ESPN or Sports Illustrated. Who can be with their recent track record? The Broncos are this decade’s version of those mid-90’s Dolphins teams that would start 7-2 and finish with nine or ten wins. Expect much of the same from the Broncos this season. They face three division road games the rest of the way, concluding with the season finale in San Diego. The Broncos will be lucky to win five more games this season, and will be hosting a playoff game in the first round.

Wild Card hopeful #1: Kansas City. The Chiefs have some tough games ahead, including home games against New England, Denver, and Cincinnati. Expect at least two wins in those contests, particularly against the Pats, who will be ripe for the picking following their self-esteem boost against the Dolphins and Saints. If the Chiefs can get it going, they can get to 10 wins and snag the Wild Card, as long as they can beat out the . . .

Wild Card hopeful #2: The best 5-4 team in the league! I get it – people love the powder blue unis, they think LaDanian Tomlinson is the next Walter Payton, and they want to have Antonio Gates’ love child. None of that makes the Chargers a better football team. Sure, they won 12 games last season, but they already have as many losses this season as last. And being ‘the best 5-4 team’ is pretty meaningless. If you want to be literal, the Chargers are the only 5-4 team in the league. Also, 5-4 just is not all that good. It reflects inconsistent play, and in the case of the Chargers, horrible performances in the fourth quarter. Does anyone else smell an 8-8 or 9-7 team?

The second Wild Card will fall to the Jaguars, who have the easiest second-half schedule and the benefit of playing in a bottom-heavy division.

AFC Playoffs

First round:

Pats over Bengals: No predicted scores here, lest I embarrass myself by publishing a prediction of something ridiculous like a 32-12 game.

Broncos over Jags: Winning at Mile High (or Whatever Bank Owns the Naming Rights Field) is tough, especially in the playoffs.

Divisional round:

Colts over Pats: And the media outlets declare ‘MANNING IS THE BEST QUARTERBACK EVER!’

Steelers over Broncos: Jake Plummer throws three picks after he fails to pay Satan and his amazing regular season performance succumbs to the force of gravity.

AFC title game:

Steelers over Colts

I am not just picking the Steelers out of blind loyalty. With that in mind, here are three reasons why the Steelers will trump the Colts.

(1) The Steelers match up well against Tony Dungy’s defense, which is built on sacrificing a little bit of size in favor of speed. In 2003 the Steelers bullied the eventual champion Bucs (I know that Gruden was the coach, but the defense was all Dungy’s) in a late-season match up on MNF. Expect the Steelers to be able to run all day against the Colts’ undersized D.

(2) The Colts are peaking too early. It is hard to imagine them playing any better than they did in beating the Pats, and they really have nowhere to go but down. The same thing happened to the Steelers last season; the team peaked midseason with wins over the Pats and Eagles, was good enough to run the table the rest of the way, but was struggling a little bit when the playoffs started. The Steelers, on the other hand, have some room for improvement.

(3) I am not convinced by Peyton Manning’s claim that the win against the Pats was ‘just another game.’ Bull. Everyone knows that every player on that team circled last Monday’s game as soon as the schedule was released. And now that the Colts finally beat the Pats, everyone is ready to hand them the title. Imagine what will happen come playoff time, especially if the Colts dispatch of the Pats in the divisional playoff. Vegas will make them a 10 point favorite against the Steelers, ESPN will shoot a Colts promo for the Super Bowl, and Indy will walk right into the biggest trap game ever conceived.

Time for the NFC, even though it is still pretty awful.

NFC North

Champion: Bears. Currently 5-3, the Bears have to face the Falcons, Steelers, Bucs, and Panthers down the stretch. Hellooooo 8-8.

NFC West

Champion: Seattle. Did you notice that the Seahawks are 6-2 and hold a win over the Falcons? Neither did I. A win this week against 4-4 St. Louis will essentially clinch the division, and a second-half schedule that features games against San Francisco (twice), Tennessee, and Green Bay will pave the way to 12 wins and the top seed in the conference. A late-season tilt against the Colts will tell us if this team is for real or the beneficiary of a bad division (I am betting on the latter).

Also-ran: The Rams have an outside shot at the playoffs, but they desperately need to beat the Seahawks this Sunday to keep from falling too far behind in the division.

NFC South

Like the AFC West, the NFC South still has three teams in the hunt and could go down to the wire. The week 17 match up between Carolina and Atlanta may decide the division.

Champion: (North) Carolina. The Panthers are on fire right now, and have three pretty easy games (Jets, at Chicago, at Buffalo) coming up. This team could be 9-2 heading into their first game with the Falcons at the end of the month. I expect the Panthers’ run game to bully the Atlanta defense, and the Panthers will sweep a pair of tight games against the Falcons to take the division at 12-4. The week 1 loss to the Saints drops the Panthers (5-1 in the division) behind the Seahawks, who will go 6-0 against division foes St. Louis, North Catholic, and the Little Sisters of the Poor.

Wild Card: Atlanta. The Falcons will do well enough in the second half to keep within shouting distance of the Panthers, and a loss to them in the season finale will bump Atlanta into Wild Card land. Michael Vick might win games, but his questionable quarterbacking will keep the Falcons from taking down the Panthers, who will dare him to win the game with his arm. I am obviously not buying into his performance against the ’Fins, and expect something closer to the egg he laid in the second half against the Jets a few weeks ago. Even with his flaws, Vick could still lead this team to 12 wins, but 11 is more likely.

Also ran: Tampa. I refuse to take this team seriously. They lost to the ‘Niners, got waxed by Carolina, and have only scored 140 points in 8 games.

NFC East

The NFC East is Pete Rozelle’s wet dream: all four teams still have a chance to win the division, and the champion might not be decided until the last weekend of the season.

Champion: New York Giants. Little Eli’s Dog and Pony show will take the division, in part because of some help from the league. The Giants, currently 6-2, are 1-2 away from home. They have four road games left (at Seattle, Philadelphia, Washington, and Oakland), and are a safe bet to lose three. Four plus three makes seven, which means we are missing an away game. The missing roadie? Week 2 against the Saints, a game played at Giants Stadium. The Giants will finish 11-5, 9-0 at home, 2-5 on the road, and a weak 3-3 in the division.

Wild card: Washington. The stretch schedule might favor the ‘Skins slightly more than the Giants, but one game sticks out to me. Washington travels to Philadelphia in week 17. The Eagles will be out of the playoff picture by then, but they will muster enough to beat the ‘Skins, holding them to 10 wins, and clinch the division for the Giants.

Also-rans: Dallas and Philadelphia. Dallas plays a brutal schedule in the second half, including a stretch against Denver, at the Giants, Kansas City, at Washington, and at Carolina. After that, the ‘Pokes will be lucky to finish 8-8. The Eagles will play better now that That Man is gone, but this team’s problems go deeper than one insane receiver. The competition in the NFC East is too tight for the Eagles to win the division, but they will salvage some pride and get to nine wins, and along the way they will play the role of playoff spoiler.

NFC Playoffs

First round

Falcons over Bears: Atlanta prevails despite 75-yard passing day by Michael Vick.

Giants over Redskins: The ‘Skins lament their loss to the Eagles, which could have put this game in Washington and almost guaranteed them a win.

Divisional round

Falcons over Seahawks: Mike Holmgren refuses to give the ball to Shaun Alexander and calls 65 pass plays.

Panthers over Giants: Eli can’t get this away game moved to Giants Stadium.

NFC title game

Panthers over Falcons: Michael Vick still can’t pass.

Super Bowl

Steelers over Panthers:

It’d old-school versus new-school, tradition versus those hideous teal/black/silver monstrosities, Bill Cowher versus Bill Cowher Lite. Bill Cowher Lite may taste great, be less filling, and be a favorite of the ‘Countdown’ crew, but he is still a watered-down version of the original. Of course, this game is guaranteed to be close, and could very well be the first Super Bowl in a generation to feature more running plays than passes.

*FDA approval does not guarantee correct predictions. Some side effects may occur. Consult your doctor in the event of dizziness, blurred vision, or severe depression on Monday mornings.

----Dr 'Burgher

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